Yesterday, I would have wagered that Martha Coakley, the Massachusetts Attorney General and Democratic candidate for the Senate in Massachusetts would in the end squeeze out a victory on Tuesday.
I was wrong. And now we will have endless analyses about what happened and what needs to change. Here's mine.
1. Retail politics. People everywhere like to be asked for their vote, face-to-face as much as that is possible. Massachusetts especially likes retail politics. Martha Coakley didn't seem to appreciate this fact and even if she did she isn't good at it, and this counts in a state that reveres hands-on politics.
Actually, I think Coakley knew her weaknesses and she was determined to coast to victory given the overwhelming number of registered Democrats. Why give a political unknown free publicity with a too aggressive campaign? And this angered Independents and some Democrats and energized the Republicans.
And by the way, where was the White House back when it became obvious that Coakley was running a bad campaign? Why did they wait until it was too late?
Above all, voters don't like to be taken for granted. They read that as arrogance. I saw the same thing happen here in a small town election and it ain't pretty.
2. The divides within the Democratic party. The far more important point is that the Democrats have a huge problem. The opposition Democrats face within their own party in rounding up sufficient votes for victory, whether in reforming Wall Street or health care, has not been lost on the ordinary voter, whether Democrat, Independent, or Republican.
This endless controversy has given the average voter pause. Who is taking their side when they are losing their homes and the banks are thumbing their nose at the Obama administration? And given all the confusion over health care reform, do the Democrats know what they're doing?